At the start of a new year, we wish each other the best. We hope for the best. But do we work towards the best possible future? Humans and societies struggle with the gap between knowing and doing. Intentions are easier said than done. Actions take time, practice, and perseverance. But all actions start with intentions, expectations, and narratives. What do you expect of the possible futures? What steps can you take this year to work towards a positive future?
Yes, our future options are plural. Fortunately, we have something to choose. So, what will we choose? And how will we prepare for the transition that lies ahead? How will we work towards the future that we prefer?
As we dive into a new year, let’s look at four narratives or change patterns that Jim Dator and his team identified based on their research. Dator is an American futurologist and a former professor and Director of the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
Patterns of change
All of the billions of “images of the futures” that can be found in the hearts, minds, plans, and actions of most humans within the world can be understood to be specific examples of one of four generic “alternative futures” that we have labeled as “grow,” “collapse,” “discipline” or “transform” – explains Dator.
We can see these narratives as archetypical stories that we make up when we think about future options. They represent patterns of change.
Dator’s four future scenarios are:
Growth is a kind of future where everything and everyone keeps climbing, e.g. population, production, consumption. The present trends and forces continue without any major disruptions or surprises. The system continues along its current trajectory.
Collapse is a kind of future in which life as we know it is falling or has fallen apart. The system “breaks” or falls into a state of dysfunction. The established way of doing things no longer works, and there is a decline in the “health” of the system.
Discipline is a kind of future in which things are carefully managed by concerted coordination, perhaps top-down or perhaps collaboratively. The system is confronted with a major challenge in terms of how it has been operating and is forced to adapt and compromise in order to “save itself” and keep the basic structure of the system intact.
Transform is a kind of future in which a profound transition has occurred, whether spiritual or technological in nature. It entails a fundamental change to the system. The rules of the game are “scrapped” and new ways of doing things emerge.
From now until next until… beyond 2050
Each future story image or vision can be traced back to one of these four change patterns. It’s interesting to think about these categories, right? Looking out from our current vantage point in 2025, we can see:
The story about growth entails our “business-as-usual” economic growth, but prettier and better. This is the story of many governments and conventional thinkers – maybe we can call this “the official future”.
Then we have the storyline of the collapse of the current world order. That story shows that growth can come to an end. The American biogeographer Jared Diamond has shown in his book Collapse (2005) that this has happened a number of times in history. It sounds scary, but looking through a positive lens, Dator writes optimistically: “With no oil and no cheap and abundant substitute, with a non-functioning economy and governance and with unprecedented environmental conditions, we will all be in a wonderful situation of New Beginnings. No more will we be restrained by old beliefs, policies, and processes. They simply won’t work. So we will have to release our pent-up creativity and imagination and become social inventors on a scale unknown previously. Oh, to be young again in such a brave, new world with no guides or rudders or chains but those of your own making!”
(Jim Dator , (2014),”“New beginnings” within a new normal for the four futures”, foresight, Vol. 16 Iss 6 pp. 496 – 511)
Third, the story of discipline, focuses on moderation and adjustments to find a new balance between our use of natural resources and social justice, allowing us to keep society running. The system is confronted with a major challenge in terms of how it has been operating and is forced to adapt and compromise in order to “save itself” and keep the basic structure of the system intact. An example of this is provided by the economist Kate Raworth in her book Doughnut Economy (2017). It is a controlled, disciplined way forward.
The fourth is the story of transformation where everything has profoundly changed, unimaginable from the older vantage point. An example of this storyline comes from Kurzweil and Diamandis. Kurzweil projects a point called the Singularity in which life is so radically altered that it is impossible to anticipate what lies beyond it. Kurzweil and Diamandis founded the Singularity Institute to study this alternative future where technology will solve a lot of problems.
But other transformational scenarios are imaginable as well. What about living in harmony with nature and developing the capacity to communicate with animals and plants?
Stretch your futures thinking
Does that sound like a fantasy? Well, it should. The time horizon of transformational change is longer and this fourth future narrative is further distanced from our current vantage point. So, we can’t fathom what this might entail. Transformation means changing completely, including your paradigm. People in the after-transformation time will look back at 2025 and might find it hard to imagine what we were thinking. A transformation is not linear. It is a leap to a whole new level or phase.
As Andy Hines explains in his book Imagining after Capitalism: “From today’s vantage point, most
images of a 20-to 30-year future are going to seem a bit shocking or unrealistic. Here the goal is to deliberately seek to develop guiding images of Transformation, so surely for some readers, these will seem implausible.
A key observation from my experience in the foresight world for over three decades is that people tend to underestimate or not realize what will happen in the intervening years between now and then. Yes, images of 2050 seem shocking from the vantage point of 2025, but the images will seem less shocking in 2030, and even less so in 2040, and maybe almost ho-hum by 2050.”
Scenarios are here to make you think about and prepare for the possible futures, not to predict “the” future. Dator emphasized that all of these narratives have pros and cons. They represent pathways of change so let’s not make them into simplistic doom or dream scenarios, dystopia or utopia. Let’s build nuanced, specific scenarios following these narratives. Dator: “The collapse scenario must be anticipated and prepared for as a wonderful new opportunity for humanity to begin all over again.”
- Looking at Dator’s four future scenarios, which ones are most plausible to you?
- Which is your preferred scenario?
- Can you specify these scenarios with actual trends and events that you foresee? Or that you hope for?
- Stretch your futures thinking and explore your assumptions and creativity.
It’s a great topic for your team’s New Year’s meeting.
“Best wishes for 2025” – and beyond: what do we aim for? What is the future that we want to create…?
If you want to learn more and engage with the futures, consider joining our Strategic Foresight & Futures community. We will start soon.
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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