You’ve probably heard the joke before. “It’s easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.” We might laugh, but in a way, our lack of imagination is sad – and dangerous. We can’t co-create a future we want to live in if we can’t imagine what that would look like.
The joke reflects more than just a lack of imagination in our busy, speedy, high-performance world (“Stop dreaming!”). It may also be a reflection of our feeling of powerlessness. There’s not much you can change about global warming or the system we live in. Money makes the world go round, the world go round, money, money – you know the song. And even if you don’t this particular song you know its essence. You have to pay the bills, your company needs more return on investment, and your clients look for better deals – you’re too busy to think about possible future(s).
The latest news headlines repeat the message: billionaires join those in power to shape the future(s) as they prefer. We sigh and settle on the couch, streaming some series to escape reality at night.
But this is crucial: we shouldn’t outsource our futures to those at the top in the current status quo. It’s our future, too! What futures would help our children and further generations thrive? Let’s re-kindle our imagination, our dialogue, our agency to democratize the futures that we want to live in.
Enter Andy Hines, associate Professor & Foresight Program Coordinator at the University of Houston. His new book Imagining After Capitalism provides possible images – based on thorough research.
We need guiding images
Hines writes “that the last five years have been characterized by a relatively high degree of fear, uncertainty, and pessimism regarding the future. Lepore talks about the mostly dystopic view of the future, one of submission, helplessness, and hopelessness; of an untrusting, lonely, and sullen twenty-first century. Opposition, ignorance, fear, and pessimism are hardly ideal conditions for transformative change!”
However: “The good news is that there are indeed viable guiding images for life after capitalism. The bad news is that it is going to be a long, tough ride for at least the next several years, if not longer, and a “good” future is by no means guaranteed. The ugly news is that we have no choice but to develop alternatives because capitalism is in trouble.”
Guiding images tie the future to the present. They provide a stimulus for change and serve as a guide for decisions and actions to achieve that change. In addition to the dystopic images that easily pop up (our brain loves a good thrill!) Hines reflected on the relative scarcity of (positive) alternatives, which reminded him of Polak’s (1973) Image of the Future-book, which lamented the absence of positive guiding images of the future in contemporary society. So, Hines got to work with his team and presented this book with three potential guiding “transformational” images of the future after capitalism.
Why after capitalism?
By the way, if you think an “after-capitalism status of the world” is not relevant for your organization you’re mistaken. Future-oriented organizations are more successful than those employing the ostrich strategy (not looking is not making the danger go away!). If you prepare to succeed in whatever future scenario becomes a reality you will be more resilient and safe. And don’t worry – Hines’ three future scenarios still offer lots of options for your organization. Let’s face it: change is the only constant. Are you ready?
The focal issue is: What are potentially compelling guiding images of the next system after capitalism?
Really, is capitalism an issue? People may disagree, however, the current (hyper-) capitalist system is causing wicked problems that threaten the modern way of life in the long term. For instance, the structure of capitalism produces the accumulation of power and money at the top. Changing the people in charge, changing the measures and metrics, and even changing the rules, will not alter the behavior of the capitalist system. It also causes the degrading of natural ecosystems on which we rely for food and other resources. There are a ton of factors that disintegrate capitalism.
Hines studied the findings compiled by leading researchers. Dator has four factors bringing about the end of the current system: the end of cheap energy, challenges for economic growth, environmental decline, and lack of governance. Scharmer shows eight disconnects creating problems for the current economic approach. Streeck sees three long-term trends in the trajectories of affluent countries creating problems. Paul Mason lists four things that at first allowed neoliberalism to flourish but have begun to destroy it. (“Capitalism is a complex adaptive system that has reached the limits of its capacity to adapt.”) Bastani expects five crises ahead.
Seven drivers of change
In addition, Hines and his team researched a lot of sources (scanning for signals, trends, and drivers of change) and plowed through dozens of books about relevant theories (on the Doughnut economy, Degrowth, Post-Growth, Social inequality, the list goes on and on).
They identified seven main drivers of change that undermine our current capitalist system:
- Shifting values: from traditional to modern and postmodern (search for meaning) and eventually integral (make a difference)
- Technology acceleration: rapid increase across sectors
- Economic inequality: threats to the social order globally
- Economic automation: this is replacing jobs
- Economic stagnation: growth is slowing in part due to the inability to pay
- Climate and carrying capacity: threats to the ecosystem
- Political “ineffective left”: ineffective in catalyzing change
Do these drivers resonate with you? They sure look familiar, urgent, and relevant to me. Hines thinks that the ongoing shift from modern values to postmodern and integral values will turn the tide. I guess that all drivers (reflecting the current poly-crisis) will push for change as the current path of the world becomes unsustainable, unacceptable, and undoable.
Houston Archetype Technique
Next, Hines works with these drivers and creates scenarios. His model is the Houston Archetype Technique (see image), based on the Three Horizons framework and Jim Dator’s four archetypical scenarios of growth, discipline, collapse, and transformation.
(Also see my earlier blog post on Jim Dator’s scenarios)
The Three Horizons
Horizon One (H1) is the baseline future of continuity, often set as the next 3-5 years, but can last longer.
Horizon Two (H2) is the transition zone of disruptions to the Baseline. It is often set ten years out, but the H2 transition can be shorter or more often longer.
Horizon Three (H3) is anything beyond H2; it is the realm of the next new system.
Hines assumes that the current capitalist system has perhaps another decade of preeminence – stretching H1 maybe to 2035. But it could be that the decline is faster or the current system lasts longer. Let’s assume 20 years of transition in H2, so H3, the transformation, might become a reality in 2055.
Transition pathways
The baseline scenario describes Horizon 1: “business as usual” that becomes less and less doable so that we arrive in Horizon 2. There are two routes for this transition period. Via Collapse: The Baseline falls into a collapse or highly dysfunctional state. Attempts to fix the old system fail and it is eventually replaced. This could take a very long time.
Via New Equilibrium: The Baseline is challenged or disrupted and responds to the challenge by making the minimum necessary changes.
It’s hopeful that Hines notes: “Our research supporting the development of the Houston Archetype Technique, which looked at historical scenarios to trace the pattern of change in domains over time, found that many seemed to “stall” in Collapse. The common pathway to Transformation was through New Equilibrium. This surprised the research team, as beforehand we assumed that Collapse might be necessary to achieve Transformation.”
Okay, let’s go for a New Equilibrium or something we can call “positive change”.
Hines presents six scenarios for the H2 transition period (approx. 2035-2055): Overshoot, Class War, and Rogue AI as collapse scenarios. And: New sources of value, Collaborative sharing platforms, and Sustainability as new equilibrium scenarios.
These are important scenarios to consider for your organization and your personal life. How would you navigate through these phases, staying resilient and better yet, successful and safe? Read the book to learn more – this is recommended reading.
Transformation images
Next, we arrive in the era of transformation and, hopefully, leave the transitional turmoil behind. Imagine, it’s 2055 and things work out well.
Which future scenario would you choose?
Circular Commons. Expands the concept of sustainability to embrace circular principles as part of a social, political, and economic commons.
Non-Workers’ Paradise. A play on the socialist idea of the workers’ paradise, but in the After Capitalism world we are not working in paid jobs as a means of sustenance.
Tech-Led Abundance. Technological progress drives and leads to abundant wealth that fixes the core distribution problem of capitalism.
A note on the plausibility of the images. From today’s vantage point, most images of a 20-to 30-year future are going to seem a bit shocking or unrealistic, but they are images of Transformation! We tend to underestimate what will happen in the years between now and 2050 and beyond. Hines sees a plausible case for these three guiding images. However, it will take a long time to make the journey: 2040-2050 is Hines’s guess. It will take long because a mindset/values/worldview change is needed. As the generations move on that shift will happen.
Read the book Imagining After Capitalism to learn the details!
Another interesting question is, how do we get there?
Reform: this keeps us stuck in capitalism, while capitalism is unfixable.
Evolution: the preferred approach that builds from the existing system to a new one over time, but it may take multiple challenge-and-response loops to eventually get to Transformation, so it may be too slow.
Revolution: the dangerous approach that says the only way is to “blow it up” and start afresh. But let’s figure out where we want to go before we blow up the current system. Hines’s images are a great start to do so!
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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