Are you feeling overwhelmed? The pace of disruptive change is accelerating. How do we get out of the current “polycrisis” as it’s been labeled? Many feel powerless and worried. What do we need to work toward a future where we want to live and work?
We need to have 1) inspiring images of where we want to go (instead of dystopic perspectives) and 2) we need to have ideas of what we can do to contribute.
In my last post, I shared some images from Andy Hines’s new book Imagining After Capitalism.
In this post, let’s talk about the roles that are needed to build a viable future.
“We are not living in an era of change, but in a change of era,” once said Jan Rotmans, professor of transition science and sustainability at Erasmus University. “But chaos is necessary for complex systems to move toward a transition.”
We need a good crisis to change
Many systems no longer function well. The financial sector is four times larger than the real economy and financial values matter most in our current capitalist societies. There’s the ecological crisis: loss of biodiversity and climate change. Add to that the geopolitical crisis and sudden change of politics and right-wing ideas that become more mainstream. The Edelman Trust Barometer has been showing declining trust in governments, companies, and media for years. Trust is also low on democracy. Divisions and inequalities are on the rise.
So, what now? The linear top-down model of change management doesn’t work anymore. Our governments are too slow or too conflicted, many corporations have a vested interest in the status quo. As professionals in governments, institutions, NGOs, corporations, and small or medium businesses, we can help our organizations take action and influence our colleagues. But we can also act as the citizens that we are. We, the people.
To reach a future where we want to live, we need bottom-up movements; people who show how things can be done differently. New ways of doing influence others, as they see what’s no longer working. When pioneers show the way, more and more people copy what they do, thus co-creating transformational change.
Powerlessness is a common illusion. Structures and systems influence people but people can also influence structures and systems. Especially if you work with the momentum of the X-curve of transformational change (see further below).
You too can make a difference: sometimes the direct effect may not be huge, but the indirect effect might be, later in time. So, take ownership and retrieve your agency. There’s something you can do, too! The system needs every push you can offer – and your nudge might cause the tipping point….
A crisis serves as an opportunity in a complex system. It makes the system more susceptible to change. Especially in chaos, you can achieve lasting change with a smart energetic group. Moreover, every crisis helps, because about 5-10% of people start thinking differently when a crisis occurs. When the next crisis hits, these 5-10% have already converted to new ways.
When 25% of people do things differently the system can reach a tipping point and the change becomes sustainable. So hang in there, because it takes a while for the first 25% to start thinking and acting differently.
The X-curve of transitions
Okay, so crisis is an opportunity and everyone can work with the momentum of our collapsing systems and create new ways of doing.
But what is that momentum or movement exactly?
Let’s look at the X-curve, developed by the Dutch Research Institute of Transitions (DRIFT). It resembles the Berkana Two Loop Model, by Margaret Wheatley and Deborah Frieze, as a map for change in complex systems.
The orange loop represents the existing system. All systems rise, peak and then go into decline. Stewards of the existing system try to maintain the health of the system for as long as possible. As decline continues hospice care can help the system end gracefully, making sure that as it declines, the damage is minimized and learning is maximized.
Emerging from the decline of an old system is a new system illustrated by the blue S-curve. The pioneers turn their backs on the existing system so they can create something new. They tend to work in isolation, on the fringes. If they remain isolated, they will likely fail.
But if the pioneers are connected, they can form networks and build trust to allow for sharing of knowledge. When networks are grown they can become communities of practice. Connecting and cherishing these communities is key to the growth of the new system.
So, the momentum of the old system is s collapse, going down. The momentum of the new, emerging systems s the futures (multiple future options) is headed for growth, going up.
In the middle is the chaos – the leap of faith to jump from the old to the new state of being and doing.
Let’s talk about roles: what can you do?
A couple of weeks ago I attended an inspiring lecture by Derk Loorbach, director of the Dutch Research Institute of Transitions (DRIFT). He listed the different roles we can take to lay the old to rest and to midwife the new.
A transition needs:
- Pioneers: social/technological innovations to move toward the new way
- Stabilizers: who do damage control, and keep what works to bring that into the new systems
- Hospice workers: to phase out the old, dying parts
- Convenors: to connect pioneers, storytellers, and organizers to amplify their reach
- Storytellers: to tell what’s possible with these positive changes
- Organizers: to grow the movement and host communities of practice where people amplify their new ways of doing and being
- Outliers: who offer inspiration to pioneers about what’s possible, even if their crazy ideas may not be realized
Which role suits you best? If you don’t feel like marching the streets in protest or complaining to your friends, there’s so much more you can do!
In other words, “doing transition” entails recognizing and building future options, telling others about it, doubting the old system, doing things differently (walk your talk!) and connecting communities of practice so that they become stronger.
Let me know which role appeals to you. I look forward to continuing this conversation.
© Marcella Bremer, 2025
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