We’re all time travelers into the future and we cannot predict what will happen over there. But if you’d like a travel guide, go with Langdon Morris’s thought-provoking book “Hello Future! The World in 2035”.
Morris discusses 32 what-if scenarios to help you think about the unknown territory we’re heading into, we’ll learn eight driving forces and consider our choices to create a future that we prefer. The challenge is huge and cannot be overemphasized: our current era is a true VUCA world – volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous. And the rate of change is accelerating – welcome to the poly-crisis. Organizations and humans alike are searching for their most effective response. How will this affect your strategy and goals, how will this impact your life? Food for thought and action!
As Morris sums up our predicament “We are indeed living in a multi-shock universe:
Future Shock: The dread induced by accelerating change
Geopolitical Shock: Mass war in the 21st century
Politico Shock: The breakdown of the social contract
Ecology Shock: The climate crisis
Techno Shock: The perfect digital storm
Economic Shock: Economic stress and transformation
Urban Shock: The massive demographic transformation
Culture Shock: The social fractures caused by acceleration.”
You can buy the book via Langdon Morris’ website
Complex systems and change
We see that everything is connected to everything, changes in one aspect or dimension cause changes in others. This is especially true for complex systems.
“All of these perma, vuca, and industrial forces of change lead society in one direction, into an ever greater tangle of complexity. Indeed, we live amid more complexity than humanity has ever had to cope with, which causes cognitive overload for individuals – future shock as we saw above – and systemic overload for struggling institutions,” says Morris.
The more complexity, the more energy is required to maintain a civilization and there comes a point when it’s no longer viable… Morris discusses different theories about our global society that make you think.
What to expect? Will the future be more complex or simple? Complex systems are hard for the human mind to grasp. It’s difficult to “see” the future options as our brains tend to think linearly, expecting incremental instead of exponential change – often shown in the image of the hockey stick graph. The occurrence of emergence in complex systems – unexpected features that develop over time – and tipping points – complete “state changes” that happen when a threshold is crossed – aren’t making things easier.
But we are learning to think differently. Here’s an example from my work. As a consultant working with organizational culture (a complex social system), it used to be hard to help clients see the “complex system features” of culture and organizational change. Client organizations preferred timelines, fixed change programs, and milestones – a linear approach. My approach emphasized the network nature of organizational systems where people influence each other in all directions and where change can suddenly happen when they’ve reached the 20% threshold of staff that are doing things differently – and then more and more employees start to copy those first 20% and a “social movement” grows. The same goes for unexpected developments that necessitate adjusting the change plans and timeline. Clients preferred linear planning and control and found that hard to accept.
But after the pandemic hit, unexpected changes and exponential developments became well-known. It became easier to work with culture as everyone had first-hand experience with sudden changes in behaviors, agile responses by some teams, unexpected upsides, etc.
From daily to deep
We also need to learn to see different levels, as Morris explains. “Events are what the news covers. These are mostly very noticeable day-to-day occurrences. Given that the news focuses on whatever is bad, we receive a constant stream of worrisome stories and images. (..)
Moving beyond events, we think about driving forces to consider the more enduring factors that shape the longer cycles and patterns, from year to year and even across decades. For example, a major wildfire event (covered in the media) may have been caused by or worsened by the prolonged driving force of drought (less coverage).
A deep structure lies behind a driving force. It explains something fundamental about society, life, or the world, something that is basic to how we live. Over time, a deep structure may reveal itself in different versions and manifestations, as one or many driving forces, but the likelihood that it will persevere is high. Its time cycle is likely to be multiple years, to decades, even centuries. Expanding on the examples above, we now know that climate change is a significant deep structure causing drought conditions worldwide, hence we can identify wildfire as an event, drought as a driving force, and climate change behind both.”
Interestingly enough, culture is a deep structure that shapes the story and identity of a civilization across generations. Organizational culture is a deep phenomenon as well that influences how people think, feel, and act. It can take a long time to change – until something big happens that causes a tipping point. Resilient cultures are open to new information, learning, and experimenting, and agile enough to change in time – while keeping the best of the past and combining that with new-learned skills and mindsets to survive in the future that is unfolding. Is your organization’s culture future-fit?
So many futures
Now we know that we can expect the unexpected. That in itself is great mental preparation to become a future-fit organization or person. Morris further helps with sketching a lot of fascinating and sometimes scary scenarios, based on the eight driving forces – in which direction are they headed:
Geopolitics – war or peace?
Politics – autocracy or democracy?
Climate – collapse or inconvenience?
Energy – transition in time, yes or no?
Technology & Science – ever more knowledge for worse or for better?
Economy & Demographics – bust or boom?
Culture – do we fight or collaborate?
Geopolitics and Politics
What resonates deeply with me is what Langdon Morris writes in the chapter on Geopolitics – war or peace? This is the basis for human kindness, positive leadership, and compassionate cultures – what I have been working on with client organizations in the past decades:
“The world is now connected together in a way such that a major stress or collapse occurring anywhere will affect everyone else, everywhere else. We are one world economy, one borderless infosphere of information and communication, one predominant energy system, and one unified
global climate. There’s just “us” now, and “they” no longer exist:
We are all together as one economy.
We are one global communications network.
We have one shared atmosphere and one shared climate.
We are all coal-fired power plants.
We are all giant gas-guzzling American road hogs.
We are all Argentine and Nebraska cattle.
We are all Brazilian rainforest deforestation and Saharan desertification.
We are all Russian invasions.
We are all fake news. And real news.
We are all North Korean nuclear weapons.
We are all Ukrainian grain surpluses.
We are all Syrian civil war refugees, Salvadoran gang war refugees, and African jihad terror refugees.
We are all Silicon Valley and Chinese and European AI, social media, and smartphone technologies.
If we fail to solve our problems together – we will fail to solve them.”
What if there is a superpower war? What if Russia wins, or Ukraine, what if China chooses war, what about Asia and the Mideast? Read this book for the scenarios and talk about the implications for your organization: where are your markets and suppliers of resources?
Equally relevant are the chapters on politics – it made me realize how much civic engagement a healthy democracy needs. But if you have a democracy it supports the social contract and produces great economic results. Let’s not move an inch in the direction of autocracy. That’s so easy to do (especially if people feel uncertain or angry since the acceleration of change started…)
Climate & Energy
What if climate change becomes an unmanageable catastrophe – or “just” a manageable
inconvenience? Check the scenarios on Four Energy Futures: will we transition in time, how disruptive will it be, and can we pay for it?
Climate change is a multiplier of crises. It leads to ecosystem change, land use change, population migration, and (geo)political pressures. These chapters are required reading for all strategists and leaders. Even if the effects are manageable, we’re facing a lot of costs and disruption to society and industry sectors.
Morris writes: “The transition will be difficult, but as far as we understand today, it is technically feasible and financially attainable. Appropriately enough, business, civil society, and government leaders are demanding action and also creating action. Will it be too slow? Probably. Will it eventually solve the crisis? Perhaps. Will we address these threats as a global community? If we manage to avoid the worst pitfalls of our fractured politics and geopolitical conflicts…(…)” – maybe we can succeed.
Technology & Science
Morris talks about AI, but also other technological and scientific innovations. What if technology totally disrupts society? That might happen, but it’s better than; What if technology demolishes society?
So, what if we controlled technology? In this scenario, governments maintain effective roles in the regulation of technology, and the social contract of technology is thus oriented toward the protection of human rights and human values. Limits are placed on what the private sector can do to deploy new technology, and effective protections are in place for factors such as privacy, due process, and meaningful legal recourse. With respect to Al, for example, an effective “kill switch” is required for all Al systems in the event that they threaten to get out of control.
Economy & Demographics & Culture
Read about the phases of the economy, but also about its inherent systemic instability. In addition, our modern lifestyle and the consumer-driven economy suffer from challenges, one of the most significant of which is debt. Then there’s the increasing proportion of older people all over the world, and the financial consequences of their health care and retirement needs. Further, we know that the future of demographics is a global population implosion, which indeed is already occurring, and which is already hugely significant. Because of these factors, when we think about the future of the economy we can now be sure that a completely new economic structure will develop.
Take that into account when you strategize!
The chapters about culture consider our responses to the acceleration of change. Are we suffering from future shock? The evidence is everywhere, not least in our fractured culture and our divided politics. Reactions and overreactions to change are frequent occurrences in today’s world. Common responses include retreats into nationalism, racism, authoritarianism, populism, and fascism. These reflect the increasing fear and anxiety that cause people to shrink from the promise of the future and turn instead to nostalgic images of a simpler past. It doesn’t matter that the imagined past never really existed in the way it’s imagined; what does matter is that people yearn for something they feel is lost. Many are angry about the state of things at present and angry at the direction in which we seem to be headed. There’s polarization between bubbles.
This will affect your organization as well…
The last part of the book focuses on organizations. Morris shares his Vantage Points Model to help your organization prepare for and contribute to a livable future. Organizations need to upgrade their mindset and take effective actions to help create a liveable future.
Their mindset entails everything from philosophy (what is our intent in the world), their purpose (do we contribute to which UN sustainable development goals?) to culture (how do we interact) and policy (what are the rules).
Action means strategizing on effective actions, organizing for action, taking care of logistics, and doing the tasks.
Morris suggests tools like scenarios to map possible futures, technology, and product roadmaps, stimulating a learning attitude, and using data and storytelling to bring the desired future closer. An important update to our thinking is learning to see and navigate complexity and systems thinking.
The best organizational structure for learning and agility seems to be a flat, networked organization instead of the classic hierarchy – the pyramid. Focusing on a knowledge channel that connects the nodes in the organizational network (and a learning culture I would add) will keep the organization aligned. Leadership should facilitate forward thinking and help people stay ahead of change.
But what will change? What if… Morris sketches three future scenarios. The big fix, Darkness and The Tech Demon. Feel free to create your own scenarios. An interesting read is Morris’s speculations for how the eight driving forces might play out by 2035.
Co-create a livable future
Our choices and actions today create the future. What’s the future you want to contribute to?
Morris shares a vision of a future world in which we adapt successfully to the challenges above. It won’t be utopia, but not dystopia either. “How will we get there? We will have to master complexity through the crafts of systems thinking, innovation, design, science, and futurism, and through exceptional leadership. It will require that we bring forth in ourselves all the other qualities that are the best of us.”
But will that ever happen? Aren’t we already doing too little and too late to solve or cope with the polycrisis? There’s still hope that the current mindset and systems might change, argues Morris. “Look at the insights from complexity theorist John Holland, which may increase the possibility that an emergence or a tipping point will occur:
1. Scale: A large number of people need to be engaged. (Already there are)
2. Interaction: The people involved need to interact intensely so they learn from one another at a rapid rate. (This is also happening.)
3. Diversity: Those involved should be culturally diverse so that they are more likely to discover a broader range of possible solutions. (They are.)
4. Urgency: A strong sense of urgency must motivate people to search for solutions. (It is.)
5. Connection: A high number of connections must exist to facilitate and expedite their process of discovery. (There are.)”
In a social system such as our global society and economy, we need different roles to realize change. Morris shares a paragraph from social innovator Geoff Mulgan’s work: “Social change begins hot. It draws its energy from anger, resentment, and frustration. This is what drives people onto the streets, and impels the activists to give up their lives to get new projects off the ground.
Movements have to move people. Yet, to have lasting impact the movements have to become cool. They take the form of bureaucracies, organizations with rules and employees. Protests turn into new laws, enforced by courts and judges. Placards turn into new norms. Navigating this transition is hugely difficult for most movements, and usually requires new people – the consolidators who are often resented by the pioneers.
But they both need each other. One without the other is useless. Hot without cold just blows away. Cold without the injection of energy from the hot is lifeless.”
So, we need different roles and perspectives to create a liveable future. And there are plenty of reasons for optimism, too, in addition to everything that makes us feel pessimistic.
That’s why we should do our homework: let’s talk about the future, let’s develop positive organizations where every perspective is welcomed, and let’s learn and take action toward the future we want.
You can buy the book via Langdon Morris’ website
© Marcella Bremer, 2024
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